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On the Sovereign Debt Crisis and Financing Risks

—Thinking Based on China and Other Major World Economies

Zheng Zhijie

Abstract: As an important measure of government debt risks, the debt ratio refers to the proportion of the year-end balance of government debt to the current year's GDP and reflects an economy's carrying capacity in terms of the government debts. In assessing the debt risk, especially the debt risk of the government that shoulders the responsibility as the lender of last resort in the debt crisis, we should not only analyze it in an isolated manner from the perspective of debt expansion, but also examine whether it has enough repayment guarantee, that is, when the crisis arises, the government has enough resources to deal with it as the final responsible party. With the structural slowdown of and increasing downward pressure on China’s economy, there are growing concerns about the aggravation of debt risks. Therefore, for the assessment of the debt risk of the Chinese government, we must first look at the overall situation, and then analyze from the perspectives of international comparison and asset-debt ratios. The result of this article shows that the debt ratio level of the Chinese government is relatively secure, the sovereign balance sheet is moderately stable, and the overall debt risk is still within the controllable range.

Keywords: Sovereign debt crisis, sovereign asset, financing risks, government debt, balance sheet

鄭之杰，國家開發銀行副董事長、行長，南開大學兼職教授，享受國務院政府特殊津貼。研究方向為中國經濟轉型、金融理論與實踐。主要著作有《中等收入陷阱：基于經濟轉型與社會治理的理解》《“走出去”的法律問題與實踐》《走近全球量化寬松》等。