【摘要】城鄉收入差距居高不下是全球性難題，我國新型城鎮化改革成果能否公平惠及不同人群和地區，進而縮小城鄉居民收入差距，是一個備受關注的問題。本文借助三批新型城鎮化綜合試點提供的準自然實驗背景，基于2012年至2019年2805個縣級行政區的面板數據和多期雙重差分模型，使用插補估計方法對政策效應進行評估后發現，在這一較短時間段內，新型城鎮化改革對試點縣級行政區的城鄉人均可支配收入差距有正向影響。產業結構轉型升級加快、地方政府宏觀調控力度加大、非農固定資產投資占比提高、縣域耕地面積減少以及由于戶口性質轉換導致的純統計意義上的城鄉收入水平變化，是該影響的重要作用機制。異質性分析顯示，中部和西部試點地區的城鄉收入差距在政策作用下顯著縮小，東部地區則相反，這一差異表明新型城鎮化改革向中西部傾斜的政策舉措有利于縮小城鄉差距。

【關鍵字】城鎮化 城鄉收入差距 城鄉融合發展 新型城鎮化改革 多期雙重差分模型

【中圖分類號】F299.2/F124.7     【文獻標識碼】A

【DOI】10.16619/j.cnki.rmltxsqy.2024.16.011

【作者簡介】清華大學經濟管理學院  侯婉薇

注釋

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責 編／桂 琰 美 編∕周群英

New-type Urbanization Reform and the Urban-rural Income Gap

—An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data from County-level Administrative Regions

Hou Wanwei

Abstract: Amid the global challenges of the persistent income gap between urban and rural areas, a key issue is whether the achievements of China's new-type urbanization reform can equitably benefit different populations and regions and narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents. This paper, leveraging the quasi-natural experiment provided by three batches of new-type urbanization comprehensive pilot programs and using panel data from 2,805 county-level administrative regions from 2012 to 2019 along with a multi-period difference-in-differences model, evaluates the policy effects using the imputation estimation method. The findings indicate that within this relatively short time frame, the new-type urbanization reform widened the urban-rural income gap in the pilot regions. The main mechanisms of this impact include accelerated industrial transformation and upgrading, increased macroeconomic regulation by local governments, a higher proportion of investment in non-agricultural fixed assets, reduced arable land in county areas, and variations in urban and rural income levels by statistics due to the conversion of household registration status. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the urban-rural income gap in the central and western pilot areas has significantly narrowed under the policy impact, while the opposite is true in the eastern counterparts. This difference suggests that the policy measure of the new-type urbanization reform, in which the central and western regions are gaining more attention and support, is conducive to narrowing the urban-rural gap.

Keywords: urbanization, urban-rural income gap, integrated urban-rural development, new-type urbanization reform, multi-period difference-in-differences model